Adverse weather costs businesses billions of bolltom-line dollars. In the U.S. alone, the private-sector inter annual weather sensitivity amounts to nearly $500B (Lazo, et al, 2011), or close to 3.4% of the 2008 US GDP. Globally, this sensitivity estimate tops $2T.

Weather-related insurance typically indemnifies customers due to rare, catastrophic events. With insured losses less than 15% of the total global weather risk, the majority of risk arises from non-catastrophic weather variability - from strong seasonal and sub-seasonal weather anomalies (ex. snow storms, rain storms, heat waves, cold snaps), to fluctuations in daily extremes of various weather elements (i.e., temperature, precipitation, winds, etc.). Adverse weather may impact scheduling, production, distribution, revenue, resource allocation, and other measures of your business activity.

Weather Risk Mapping (WRM) provides a powerful tool to quantify and anticipate your non-catastrophic weather risk by providing the following services and features:
  • Weather Risk Assessment finds your weather sensitivity and its significance.
  • Weather Risk Monitoring routinely records your recent weather risk, producing updated probability estimates of the recent weather impacts.
  • Weather Risk Forecast provides upcoming probabilistic weather risks derived from weather forecasts.
  • The spatial resolution of global data sets is 2.5 deg whereas the lower 48 states' (US) resolution is 32 km.
Weather Risk Mitigation may be accomplished by purchasing over-the-counter and/or exchange-traded weather derivatives or specialized weather insurance products – or it may be accomplished by modifying operational procedures. Regardless of your mitigation strategy, our software package provides the complete quantitative measure of your business weather risk, and the capability to monitor and forecast that risk into the future. 		Our Weather Risk Mapping Tool transforms weather data and one or more metrics of your business activity into weather risk. The transformation is visualized as passing historical weather data through a lens/prism combination and filter customized for each business or enterprise.

This innovative analytical tool is applicable to any weather-sensitive business metric for practically any business or enterprise. Central to the tool is its algorithm, which is:

Intuitive: The algorithm disperses historical business weather into discrete historical analog sets of simular weather. The variety of analog-linked business metric distributions associated with all analog sets characterize the weather risk.

Flexible: With our customizable templates, a vast array of weather element choices, and WRM's assistance, you can select the spatial and temporal preprocessing of multielement weather data that uniquely defines your weather risk.

Statistically Rigorous: Your weather risk is expressed in terms of probabilities with quantified uncertainty. A measure of the assessment efficacy allows iterative refinement.

Learn more about our service from these overviews:
General     Features     Technical     Operational

Weather Risk Assessment requires two sources of historical input. The first is a list of weather elements deemed relevant to your weather risk, and the second is a measure of your weather-related risk. You create one or more profile templates by providing the time resolution and how the weather data are processed spatially and temporally. The assessment produces the weather risk empirically, by associating your risk metric with weather "features" derived from indices based on your selected weather elements. The assessment may be iteratively optimized, since each risk profile is accompanied by quantitative measures of the procedure's efficacy.

Weather Risk Monitoring is designed to allow businesses with significant weather risk to monitor that risk at the temporal resolution specified during the assessment procedure. Essentially you are monitoring the statistical distribution of your business metric (i.e., your weather risk) as your business weather moves along the map. Weather data for risk monitoring is processed in a similar manner as the historical data used to assess your weather risk.

Weather Risk Forecast incorporates global ensemble forecasts and/or long-range predictions to project the position of your business weather on the map as a distribution of possible locations. The statistical distribution of your business metric (i.e., your weather risk) is derived as a probability weighted average of the risk distributions at these locations. Weather data for risk forecasts is processed in a similar manner as the historical data used to assess your weather risk.